Kate as-needed

Shadow Edge — Polymarket binary markets, bet with the pros (Kate fair vs PM mark)

Positions file · 2026-05-25Last handoff · 2026-05-19

Active positions

BTC YES 80–82k · 2026-05-05

Algo cumulative P&L

−$89.71

per 2026-05-08 handoff

Algo hit rate

0 / 5

attribution pending: 1 win

Experiment ends

Jun 2

30-day experiment running

Recent activity

Positions schema v1.1 — added 5 MCP take-profit fields

2026-05-25 · supports OpenClaw MCP close_pct flow

HANDOFF — Nick uploaded mcp_server.py (local MCP wrapping OpenClaw API) setup pending

2026-05-19 · needs `pip install mcp httpx python-dotenv` + Claude Desktop config

10 Kate tasks imported into Zoho CRM via CSV (paused — needs cleanup)

2026-05-08 · all owners default to Nick, all Related-To blank

Strategic shift: Shadow Edge promoted to active end-of-year goal (= second fund) decided

2026-05-08 · target now "two funds" — CMFDH II + Shadow Edge

Decision 15 — production execution moves to Aneep's Linux box; engine.py reference-only

2026-05-05 · exit logic simplified to +10% / 51% probability-floor

Queue / next

Reconcile open BTC 80–82k position stale?

Market resolved 2026-05-05 16:00 UTC; file still OPEN

Adopt rulebook Rule #7 (Tail-Probability Cap) in kate_algo.py

Highest-leverage change; doesn't depend on Aneep

Wait for Aneep's order API spec → write thin Python client

engine/aneep_client.py · proxy-wallet model being resolved

Clean up 10 Zoho CRM tasks (reassign 6 to Aneep, set Related To = Kate Agent)

Per-task edit; mass-update doesn't cover those fields

Finish Zoho mass-edit on home computer (paused 2026-05-08)

CRM connector OAuth flow was looping

Decisions needed

BTC 80–82k position outcome: market resolved 2026-05-05 but active.json still lists it OPEN — confirm with Nick whether redeem/loss landed.
Attribution backlog: 3 manual-entry positions (05-04 BTC +$5.30 win, 05-04 ETH tail, 05-05 BTC) — Kate-signal or discretionary? Could move track record from 0W/5L to 1W/5L.
Aneep order API: waiting on validated spec. Polymarket Proxy-Wallet flow being resolved (CLOB Proxy contract, USDC deposit, ClobClient signer config).
Nick — send Polymarket builder profile + code to Aneep via WhatsApp (builder name "Kate"). Action item from last meeting.
Read endpoints for public dashboard: ask Aneep for `GET /positions` + `GET /closed` once order API lands.

Strategy: Kate computes Polymarket "fair" YES probability from Deribit BTC/ETH options; trades when PM mark deviates ≥5pp on the 51%+ favorite side with confidence ≥6/10. Decision 15 exit (simplified): sell at +10% profit, OR sell when Kate's fair on the held side drops below 51% — no other triggers.

Architecture: production execution on Aneep's openclaw Linux box (Decision 15). Local engine/engine.py is reference code, not production. Live data: HTML on Squarespace + openclaw API. No more Gmail attachment downloads.

Existing surfaces: dashboard.html, dashboard-public.html, dashboard-squarespace.html, strategy-page.html, squarespace_tracker.html — this dashboard is the at-a-glance summary, not a replacement.